Berrettini - Nadal: prediction and bet on the Australian Open semifinals

Berrettini - Nadal: prediction and bet on the Australian Open semifinals
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On January 28, at 06-30 Moscow time, Berrettini will play against Nadal in the semi-finals of the Australian Open. Who has more strength left after the exhausting matches of the 1/4 finals? Bookmakers consider the Spanish tennis player to be the favorite of the meeting.

Matteo Berrettini   

Berrettini is a 25-year-old Italian tennis player, the 7th racket of the world. The new year started with the ATP CUP, won only one singles match out of three there, and Italy, as a result, did not get out of the group. At the Australian Open, he started with victories in four games over Nakashima and Kozlov, and in the third round he defeated Alcaraz with great difficulty: 6-2, 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 7-6. The 1/4 finals match against Monfils followed a similar scenario: 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 6-2. Only Carreno-Busta managed to beat him in three games: 7-5, 7-6, 6-4.

Rafael Nadal       

Nadal is a 35-year-old Spanish tennis player, the 5th racket of the world. I decided to start the season with the ATP-250 tournament in Melbourne-1, and confidently won it without losing a single set. At the Australian Open, he started with easy victories over Giron and Hanfman, without giving up a single game on his serve, in the third round he confidently defeated Khachanov (6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1), and then, without any problems, he dealt with Mannarino: 7-6, 6-2, 6-2. The most difficult thing was in the battle of the 1/4 finals against Shapovalov: 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3. Interestingly, the fate of each game was decided by one break.

Personal meeting statistics

The only face-to-face meeting remained for Nadal: 7-6, 6-4, 6-1. It was the semifinals of the 2019 US Open.

Interesting facts:

  • Nadal – the champion of the Australian Open in 2009, and 4th times, reaching the final (2012, 2014, 2017, 2019).
  • Rafa reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open for the seventh time.
  • The semi-final (2022) is Matteo's best result at the Australian Open.
  • Berrettini is the first Italian to reach the semi-finals at the Australian Open.
  • Since last season, Matteo has only lost to Djokovic at the TBS.
  • At this TBSH, the Italian played four tie-breaks, and won them all.
  • In a duel against Shapovalov, Nadal made 11 double mistakes, and this is the worst indicator of the Spaniard in his entire career.

Forecast from LiveResult.ru

On the way to the semifinals, Berrettini lost as many as 6 games, and Nadal lost half as many. A similar picture is with the lost games on his serve: 9 for the Italian and 4 for the Spaniard. Rafa looks more stable and confident in the game, so we bet on the Spaniard to win. Matteo, of course, can take a set, but it seems to us that Nadal will not allow him more. We boldly take the Spaniard with a minus handicap.

Tip: Nadal's victory with a Handicap (-3.0)
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Source: LiveResult.Ru

Previous Matches

Personal matches history (1)

Matteo Berrettini: wins: 0, defeats: 1
Rafael Nadal: wins: 1, defeats: 0
Round 1

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